2026-05-28
"The first move is to build a mathematical model based on assumptions that cannot be verified and are often highly contestable.
The second is to present the model’s output in an official report in a form that ordinary readers will naturally interpret as an established historical fact.
That is how estimates become 'evidence', and how speculation can harden into public memory"
It cannot be said often enough that "modelling" is not of itself "science". It is simply mathematics - algorithms - applied to some sort of data by computers. It can be as complicated as you wish but it still of itself would not be "science".
The Scientific Method makes no mention of "modelling". Modelling is simply a computational tool used by anybody for any purpose. "Garbage in = garbage out" applies. As illustrated by Professor Ferguson when Covid first reared its unwelcome head.
Still, that doesn't stop the ignorant (or maybe even mendacious) from repackaging the evidence to appear authoritative ...
