2020-12-14
Results of the Pfizer Covid Vaccine trials are out.
john Rappaport is no fan of Big Pharma, but i find it hard to fault his logic when applied to the Pfizer vaccine roll-out.
We will see how it goes, but I couldn't recommend anyone to be first to volunteer for what must really (in the opinion of Dr Yeadon) be still regarded as an experimental vaccine.
The Guardian article referenced in John Rappaport's blog is here.
It does call into question the wisdom of rolling this out first to the vulnerable in care homes who may have little capability of forming any informed opinion of their own when advised to take this vaccine - will the principle of informed consent apply? If so, how exactly? If not, why not, and would this not be illegal?
If we assume that the PCR test is accurate, that 10% of PCR tests are positive, and up to 5% of our most vulnerable elderly that catch Covid will die of it as the statistics suggest, then worst case is that 5% of 10% or 1 in 200 may die of Covid.
But we know that due to the way in which these Covid death statistics are compiled that many or all of these died of other causes but had a positive PCR test whilst in hospital.
And we have a very good idea that the PCR test is in fact useless (except perhaps as a means of endlessly extending a pandemic that has run its course), in which case the chances of our vulnerable elderly dying from Covid may be nearer to 1 in 2000 or even 1 in 20000 than 1 in 200.
So how can we really justify giving the vaccine to vulnerable elderly who (a) may be incapable of giving informed consent and (b) may suffer serious reactions to a novel vaccination?
We don’t know.
The majority of the Pfizer trial participants were not vulnerable and elderly, so reliable statistical results for this age group are not to my knowledge available. What we do know from the Pfizer trials is that vaccine efficacy in the over-75s was estimated to lie somewhere between 13.1% and 100% with 95% confidence (although this wide range may simply reflect the low numbers in this cohort). So statistically reliable efficacy for this age group is not a given - yet someone has determined that they are to be the guinea-pigs for this novel vaccine.
